December 7, 2023

There is just one sport on the MLB slate; it’s do-or-die for the Atlanta Braves and doubtlessly the final sport on the diamond earlier than the American and Nationwide League Championship Collection start this weekend. I’ve discovered a spot of worth on this sport. Right here is my finest participant prop wager for the night of Thursday, October 12 for Recreation 4 of this Nationwide League Division Collection.

Take a look at our Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions

Spencer Strider (ATL) Underneath 8.5 strikeouts (-140)

Line accessible at BetMGM at time of publishing; beneficial 0.75u wager.

The season of Atlanta Braves ace Spencer Strider has been anticlimactic. After being among the many NL Cy Younger favorites for a number of months, his arm grew to become much less of a risk down the stretch of the common season and he solely recorded nine-plus strikeouts in two of his final 5 common season begins. His two profession postseason begins have each come towards the Philadelphia Phillies. In final yr’s NLDS Recreation 3, he solely managed 2.1 innings pitched and surrendered 5 earned runs and notched 4 strikeouts. On this yr’s NLDS Recreation 1 only a few days in the past, he really dominated, posting 7.0 innings pitched and permitting only one earned run—however he nonetheless solely notched 8 strikeouts.

Now, he will get simply 4 days relaxation in an elimination sport towards a Phillies lineup that has posted a 26.6% strikeout price and a 27.8% O-Swing% (third-lowest amongst all playoff groups). That isn’t finest information for a pitcher that relied on a ninety fifth percentile chase price this season and primarily works with a two-pitch combo of a four-seamer and slider. Philadelphia has posted a 0.93 run worth/100 towards the four-seamer and a 0.30 run worth/100 towards the slider, each above common within the playoffs. This sizzling lineup ought to get to Strider tonight, and if there may be any hassle coming Strider’s means, supervisor Brian Snitker is not going to shrink back from utilizing his bullpen in an elimination sport, particularly since Strider’s Ok-BB% plummets the second time via the order.

This prop is well worth the juice as I’ve him projected for simply 6.5 strikeouts and would play the beneath on this line all the way down to -150.

Don’t miss our Braves-Phillies Similar Recreation Parlay (+552 odds!)

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